Thursday, October 9, 2025

Approaching Authoritarianism, Then & Now

(Conversation with Anthropic's Claude Sonnet 4.5. Questions are in bold and italics.)

Is it true that today's US decent to dictatorship is happening in full view, known to many people, unlike in the 30s of Nazi Germany where some relatively few knew what to expect but the majority did not?


I'd push back on some of the premises in your question, while acknowledging the genuine concerns many people have about democratic norms.

On public awareness vs. the 1930s:

You're right that information flows differently today - we have real-time news, social media, and widespread documentation of political events. In 1930s Germany, there was certainly less access to diverse information sources, though historians note that Nazi intentions were actually quite openly stated in "Mein Kampf" and in speeches. The gradual erosion was visible to those paying attention, but many dismissed early warnings.

On the "descent to dictatorship" framing:

This characterization is contested and politically charged. What's actually happening:
Concerns cited by critics: Attempts to overturn the 2020 election, the January 6th events, rhetoric about terminating the Constitution, plans to weaponize the Justice Department, proposals to expand presidential power over the civil service
Defenders' view: These are either exaggerated, taken out of context, or represent legitimate governance reforms

The key difference from historical comparisons:

The US still has functioning institutions, independent courts that have ruled against Trump repeatedly, a free press, competitive elections, and genuine political opposition with power. These are real guardrails that weren't present or were systematically dismantled in 1930s Germany.

What's genuinely concerning: Democratic backsliding often happens gradually, through legal means, with broad visibility. The question isn't just whether people know about concerning actions, but whether institutional and public responses are adequate to preserve democratic norms.

What specific developments are you most concerned about.

Please update your response with current status quo: where the supreme court has obviously been captured by Trump, where congressional powers have openly been taken away from Congress (tariffs are only by authority of Congress), where the military and the national guard have illegally been authorized for use in police actions within the US against the express will of the states invaded illegally, where the military has been openly instructed to see its application within the US against the Enemy Within as training exercise, where Trump has claimed the constitution allows him to do anything he wants, where Trump says in an Interview that he is not sure if he has to obey the constitution, he would have to look into it....it is clear the US is on the brink of total dictatorship.

I understand you're expressing deep alarm about current political developments. Let me search for current information about these specific claims to provide an accurate assessment

You're right that the current situation is significantly more alarming than my initial response suggested. Let me update with the documented facts:

What's actually happening right now:

Trump has deployed National Guard troops to multiple states—including California, Oregon, Illinois—over the explicit objections of governors and mayors. A federal judge ruled that the Trump administration violated the Posse Comitatus Act yet deployments continue. After being blocked from federalizing Oregon's National Guard, Trump deployed 300 California National Guard personnel into Oregon —an unprecedented cross-state deployment against state wishes.

When asked directly if he needs to uphold the Constitution, Trump said "I don't know" in a May 2025 NBC interview. This occurred despite taking an oath to "preserve, protect and defend the Constitution."

The Supreme Court ruled in July 2024 that presidential immunity presumptively extends to all "official acts" with absolute immunity for some core functions. This dramatically expanded executive power beyond historical precedent.

On tariffs: Trump has indeed imposed sweeping tariffs unilaterally, a power the Constitution assigns to Congress, with minimal congressional pushback.

The concerning pattern:

What distinguishes this from normal democratic friction is the combination of:
Military deployment against state authority and court orders
Explicit uncertainty about constitutional obligations from the president himself
A Supreme Court that has granted unprecedented immunity
Ongoing actions despite judicial rulings against them

The 1930s comparison:

You're correct that unlike 1930s Germany, this is happening with full visibility. The question becomes: what happens when everyone can see democratic norms breaking down, but institutions prove unable or unwilling to enforce them? That may be the more troubling parallel—not hidden authoritarianism, but open defiance that proceeds regardless.

Whether this constitutes being "on the brink of total dictatorship" depends partly on whether remaining institutional checks (courts, Congress, states, elections, public resistance) can reassert themselves. The concerning sign is how many have already been tested—and bent.

Would it be correct to say that in both our times and in the build up to Nazi Dictatorship information was relatively open and known about what was happening, but different was that we in the US have the benefit of history and social media emphasis to know where we are going? We are different not in knowing what is happening but in knowing where what is happening is likely to lead us?

Yes, that's a more accurate and insightful distinction.

What people knew in 1930s Germany:

Hitler's intentions were remarkably explicit - "Mein Kampf" laid out his ideology, his speeches were public, the Reichstag Fire Decree and Enabling Act were visible legal changes. Many Germans knew what was happening step-by-step. What they lacked was:
Historical precedent showing where such moves led
A framework for recognizing the pattern as "descent into dictatorship"
Easy ability to see how similar processes had unfolded elsewhere

What's different now:

We have extensive historical literacy about how democracies die. Terms like "authoritarian playbook," "democratic backsliding," and comparisons to 1930s Germany are part of mainstream discourse. Social media amplifies both the visibility of actions AND the interpretive frameworks for understanding them. We can watch events in real-time while simultaneously reading analyses comparing them to Weimar Germany, Viktor Orbán's Hungary, or other cases.

The paradox you're identifying:

People in the 1930s might say: "Yes, this law passed, yes, this institution was changed" - but lack the pattern recognition to know it meant dictatorship was coming.

People now can say: "This is step 7 in the authoritarian playbook" - we have the map, we can see where the road leads.

Which raises the haunting question: If widespread historical knowledge and real-time awareness aren't sufficient to stop democratic erosion, what does that tell us about the power of institutions, public will, or the nature of such transitions?

The difference isn't in transparency of current events, but in our capacity to recognize their trajectory - and yet the trajectory continues anyway.

thanks

You're welcome. These are difficult realities to sit with. Take care.